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NDP leading the UCP among voters in Calgary, Edmonton & rural Alberta

Plus, the NDP are at their highest level of support since the 2015 provincial election.

Last week, Innovative Research published the results of their latest election survey, and it’s not good news for Jason Kenney and his governing United Conservative Party.

Between the 10th and 12th of September, Innovative Research asked 200 Alberta residents who they’d vote for if an election were held that day. Among decided voters, 44% said they planned to vote for the NDP, compared to only 31% for the UCP.

This is the highest the NDP has placed in Innovative Research surveys since the 2015 election. And while the UCP are up slightly over August’s numbers, they’re still at their second lowest since the party’s founding in 2017.

NDP44%
UCP31%
Liberals8%
Wildrose Independent7%
Alberta Party5%
Green5%
Other1%
Numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding

When we include voters who are decided but leaning to a particular party, the NDP drop to 37% and the UCP to 26%.

NDP37%
UCP26%
Liberals6%
Wildrose Independent6%
Alberta Party4%
Green4%
Undecided11%
Wouldn’t vote/none4%
Numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding

Not only do the NDP lead the other parties by at least a 13-point margin, even when including leaning voters, but they’re leading in all areas of the province.

CalgaryEdmontonRest of
Alberta
NDP39%48%46%
UCP27%24%40%
Liberals16%6%0%
Wildrose9%4%9%
Green6%8%0%
Alberta Party3%9%4%
Other0%2%0%

Finally, NDP had the strongest party loyalty, with 98% of people identifying with the party saying they plan to vote for them. The UCP were at only 63%.

Interesting, 12% of the respondents identifying with the UCP said they planned to vote NDP, yet only 1% of NDP identifiers planned to vote UCP. Plus 3% of UCPers plan to not vote at all, compared to 0% for the NDP.

NDPUCPLib.Other
NDP98%12%16%22%
UCP1%63%3%34%
Liberals0%2%70%0%
Alberta Party1%3%6%12%
Wildrose0%13%0%7%
Green0%1%0%22%
Other0%0%0%3%
Undecided0%4%5%1%
Won’t vote0%3%0%0%

When participants were asked who their second choice party was, they chose Liberals the most, but the Wildrose were very close behind.

Liberals20%
Wildrose19%
Alberta Party12%
UCP9%
NDP5%
Greens5%
Undecided23%
Wouldn’t vote/none8%

Only 5% of participants when asked to rate how satisfied they are with the current provincial government said that they’re “very satisfied”. It was 9 times that for very dissatisfied.

Very dissatisfied45%
Somewhat dissatisfied26%
Somewhat satisfied21%
Very satisfied5%

This is the lowest level since at least the summer of 2016 that the provincial government in Alberta has received, regardless of party.

Finally, when considering just the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, only 16% of respondents said that the UCP government’s restrictions are about right.

More than half say the restrictions are either somewhat too loose (24%) or far too loose (30%). Only 12% say they’re far too tight, and just 15% say they’re somewhat too tight.

This time last year, 46% of respondents thought the level of restrictions was about right.

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By Kim Siever

I live in Lethbridge with my spouse and 4 of our 6 children. I’m a writer, focusing on political news, social issues, and the occasional poem. My politics are radically left.

I’m also dichotomally Mormon. And I’m a functional vegetarian: I have a blog post about that somewhere around here. My pronouns are he/him, and I’m queer.

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