The College of Physicians and Surgeons of Alberta recently released their 4th quarter Physician Resources in Alberta update for 2020.
According to the College of Physicians and Surgeons of Alberta, there were 11,120 registered physicians at the end of December. That’s a net decrease of 32 during this past quarter and a net increase of 172 during the same period in 2019.
Of the 19 communities listed in their report, 10 saw a net decrease of registered physicians over the last quarter. Unsurprisingly, Calgary and Edmonton had the largest net decrease, at 13 and 10 respectively. Lethbridge was next, at a loss of 8. Fort McMurray and Sherwood Park were tied with the largest net increase, at 3 new doctors each.
That quarterly net decrease of 32 was a result of 91 new physician registrations and the cancellation of 121 registration.
Of those cancellations, about half of them (60) were for physicians who left the province. As well, 16 of the new registrations were for physicians returned to Alberta, which gives us a net migration of 24 physicians out of the province. Remember, that is for registrations. Theoretically, a doctor could leave Alberta but maintain their registration in the province.
The numbers reflect the physicians who maintained an active licence within the applicable quarter; it cannot be interpreted as those who are actively practising. . . . These counts do not necessarily reflect physicians’ functional area of practice, or even if they have an active clinical practice.“Methodology”. Physician Resources in Alberta Quarterly Update: Oct 01, 2020 to Dec 30, 2020, pp. 1,3.
Let’s look at the registration numbers over the last 5 years or so (I couldn’t find any CPSA data beyond 2016):
Last week, the UCP caucus tweeted that Alberta had gained doctors, with Q4 2020’s 11,120 registration being 172 higher than that of Q4 2019.
Yes, it’s true that registrations increased by 173 in the fourth quarter of 2020, compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
But something interesting shows up in that data.
Let’s look at al the fourth quarters together. First, we’ll compare fourth quarter registrations to third quarter registrations.
This is the worst quarter-over-quarter performance in the last 5 years.
During that time, there have been only 2 fourth quarters that saw a decrease over the previous quarter. The 2020 fourth quarter was one of them, and the decrease was nearly 10 times the size of the other decrease.
The fourth quarter typically has the second lowest net increases to physician registrations in any given year, so the fact that this is the largest net decrease of any of the 5 fourth quarters is significant.
And here are the 5 fourth quarters with how much they’ve changed from the previous fourth quarter.
Once again, physician registrations in the fourth quarter this year saw the smallest increase of all the fourth quarters since 2016, less than half of the 2016 increase of 3.5% under the NDP.
So, while it is true that physician registrations are up by 172 over the second quarter in 2020, this is the smallest fourth quarter increase in the last 5 years.
Every year since 2016 has seen a smaller increase in the fourth quarter than the previous year, but this is significantly smaller.
The other fourth-quarter increases shrunk by 0.24 to 0.39 percentage points, with an average of 0.31. The increase in Q4 2020, however, was a full percentage point smaller than the 2019 increase and nearly 2 points smaller than the 2016 increase.
Oh, and I just want to point out that out of those 11,120 registered physicians, only 3,873 are registered in family medicine, which works out to be about 1 family doctor for every 1,150 residents.