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1 in 4 voters who picked UCP in 2019 would pick NDP today

This is the third poll in a row where Alberta’s UCP don’t lead in support.

Two polls in just as many weeks have shown the Alberta NDP holding a lead over the now-governing United Conservative Party in Alberta.

The newest poll, released by Research Co earlier this week, has the NDP with 43% support and the UCP with 40% among decided voters.

This comes 2 weeks after an Environics Research poll showing the NDP at 47% and the UCP at 40%. Both polls follow an Angus Reid poll that showed the two parties tied at 38% in September.

Alberta is once again at a consistent 9% of support. The Green Party, Liberal Party, and Wildrose Independence Party each sit at 2%.

In this week’s poll, the NDP hold a significant lead over the UCP among women, those under 55, and those living in Edmonton.

NDPUCP
Men37%39%
Women37%29%
18–3441%32%
35–5435%33%
55+31%39%
Calgary34%39%
Edmonton50%27%
Rest of Alberta25%39%

Interestingly, undecided voters make up 1 in 5 respondents outside of Calgary and Edmonton. If all of them voted for the NDP, that could put their support outside of the two largest cities at 66%. If they all went to the UCP, it could boost their support to 80%.

Of those who voted UCP last year, only 3 in 5 plan to do so again. Of the remaining 40%, 1 in 4 plan to vote for the NDP. And 1 in 6 of those who voted UCP in 2019 are currently undecided.

Among only decided voters, 3 out of 4 UCP voters in 2019 would pick them again, and of the remaining former UCP voters, nearly half (44%) would pick the NDP.

By comparison, 83% of those who voted NDP last year plan to do so again; although 3% plan to vote UCP this time and 5% for the Alberta Party. The numbers switch to 87% among decided voters who voted NDP last year, and the other two parties remain unchanged.

Alberta premier Jason Kenney’s approval rating sat at 42%, while Rachel Notley, the leader of the official opposition, had the highest approval rating of all the provincial party leaders indicated in the poll, at 45%.

The Green Party leader and the interim leaders of the Alberta Party and the Wildrose Independence Party each saw only 15-16% approval, with about half of respondents saying they were unsure about each of those 3 party leaders.

Participants chose the economy (43%) and health care (27%) as the top issues facing Alberta today. Voters outside of Calgary and Edmonton were more likely to indicate the economy as the most important issue. Health care was more important to Edmonton voters (although they still felt the economy was most important), followed, intriguingly, by those outside Calgary and Edmonton.

Also in the poll was whether respondents supported a provincial sales tax, with 65% came back saying they were moderately or strongly opposed to a PST. Of the remaining 28% (7% were unsure), support was strongest among men, the young, the bigger cities, and past NDP voters.

The UCP haven’t led a poll since July.

Research Co conducted their study online 2–4 December 2020 among 600 adults in Alberta. They statistically weighted their data according to Canadian census figures for age, gender, and region in Alberta. The margin of error is +/- 4.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

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By Kim Siever

I live in Lethbridge with my spouse and 4 of our 6 children. I’m a writer, focusing on political news, social issues, and the occasional poem. My politics are radically left. I am a political economy student at the University of Athabasca, working on my second undergrad degree.

I’m also dichotomally Mormon. And I’m a functional vegetarian: I have a blog post about that somewhere around here. My pronouns are he/him, and I’m queer.

4 replies on “1 in 4 voters who picked UCP in 2019 would pick NDP today”

Given the strength of UCP support this poll shows in the 55+ category, you would think that the UCP government would have prioritized protecting seniors, including from Covid, instead of viewing them as expendable. Then again, you would also think that by now more seniors would be seriously reconsidering the appropriateness of voting for a UCP government that views them as expendable.

Regardless of your physical well being ; your ability to change mentally basically freezes at age 50. Add in a few strokes and heart events and you will endlessly return to your political default setting .

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