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Federal Conservatives not making gains with O’Toole at the helm

In the more than 2 months since O’Toole was elected, not one of the 25 polls conducted have showed him beating the Liberals.

Earlier this week, two Canadian polling firms released results of voting intentions for national voters.

The surveys conducted by Angus Reid and Leger showed the Liberals leading in support of all the major parties; although the former showed a much closer race with the Conservatives:

Angus
Reid
Leger
Liberals35%36%
Conservatives33%28%
NDP18%21%
Bloq7%7%
Greens5%5%
Others2%3%

The last Angus Reid poll was released in September. Since that time, the Liberals have remained steady in their support. The Conservatives dropped 2 points, and the NDP and Greens both gained a point.

Sep 2020Nov 2020
Liberals35%35%
Conservatives35%33%
NDP17%18%
Bloq7%7%
Greens4%5%
Others2%2%
Angus Reid poll results

Leger conducts surveys weekly, and their poll from last week showed that the Liberals have increased by 2 points, the Conservatives dropped 3 points, the Greens lost one point, and an extra point went to “Other”. The NDP remained the same at 21%.

2 Nov9 Nov
Liberals34%36%
Conservatives31%28%
NDP21%21%
Bloq7%7%
Greens6%5%
Others2%3%

Both polls seem to indicate that having a new leader has yet to help the Conservative Party make inroads with national voters. In fact, the CPC perform worse in both polls when compared to the poll results released the first week after Erin O’Toole was elected leader of the party: down by 3 points with Leger and 2 points with Angus Reid.

If you look at Alberta voters only, both polls showed strong support for the Conservatives, unsurprisingly.

Angus
Reid
Leger
Conservatives56%42%
Liberals21%31%
NDP18%24%
Greens2%1%
Others6%2%
Alberta-only voters

Here’s how Alberta’s support compares to the other provinces, based on popularity. For example, Alberta has the second highest amount of support for the Conservatives out of all the regions polled.

Angus
Reid
Leger
Conservatives2/72/6
Liberals5/74/6
NDP4/72/6
Greens7/76/6
Others1/76/6
Leger grouped SK and Manitoba together. Both pollsters grouped Atlantic Canada together.

All that being said, none of the parties are really making that much headway with voters recently.

Since April, according to Angus Reid, the Liberals have seen between 35 and 37%, the Conservatives between 31 and 35%, the NDP between 17 and 18%. and the Greens between 4 and 5%.

Leger’s weekly polling results have varied more widely since April: Liberals with 34–46%, Conservatives with 25–32%, NDP with 14–21%, and Greens with 4–8%.

That being said, the Liberals are in the lead, and have been for quite a while. In fact, we have to go back to August to find a poll that showed the Liberals in second place, when Campaign Research had the Conservatives at 33 and the Liberals at 30.

Before that, we’d have to go back to February, when Angus Reid and Nanos had the Conservatives leading and Campaign had them tied with the Liberals.

During the pandemic, there have been 76 polls released by 10 polling firms, and only 1 showed the Liberals in second place. Throughout that time, the Liberals averaged 37.9%, the Conservatives 29.6%, the NDP 16.6%, and the Greens 6.3%. The most the Liberals saw in support was 46%; the Conservatives maxed out at 35%, the NDP at 21% , and the Greens at 9%.

The pandemic boosted ratings for the Liberals, who had been running neck and neck with the Conservatives, both leading up to and following last year’s election.

That boost was short lived, however. The Liberals haven’t seen support above 40% in about 3 months. Even so, they’re still maintaining a healthy lead over the Conservatives, unlike a year ago.

And as usual, the NDP are still trying to chase after the low 20s, and the Greens, yet again, are in the single digits.

It seems as though Canadian voters are stuck with the status quo for a while.

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By Kim Siever

I live in Lethbridge with my spouse and 5 of our 6 children. I’m a writer, focusing on political news, social issues, and the occasional poem. My politics are radically left. I recently finished writing a book debunking several capitalism myths. My newest book writing project is on the labour history of Lethbridge.

I’m also dichotomally Mormon. And I’m a functional vegetarian: I have a blog post about that somewhere around here. My pronouns are he/him, and I’m queer.

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